CS2 Knife Drop Rates: Complete Guide to Case Opening Odds

CS2 Knife Drop Rates: Complete Guide to Case Opening Odds

By Michael Chen

January 10, 2025 at 06:27 PM

The chances of getting a knife in CS2 cases are precisely calculated based on extensive data and official disclosures. Here's what you need to know about knife drop rates and types.

Drop Rate Percentages in CS2 Cases:

  • Extremely rare yellow (knives) - 0.26%
  • Red (secret) skins - 0.64%
  • Pink (secret) skins - 3.2%
  • Purple (forbidden) skins - 15.98%
  • Blue (factory new) skins - 79.92%

These statistics were confirmed through multiple sources, including:

  • Large-scale case openings (like Anomaly's 4,000 case study)
  • Official Valve disclosures (required by Chinese regulations)
  • Community data collection

StatTrak versions have odds 10x lower than regular versions, and wear conditions (float values 0-1) further affect rarity and value.

Available Knife Types in CS2:

  • M9 Bayonet
  • Karambit
  • Butterfly Knife
  • Bayonet
  • Gut Knife
  • Flip Knife
  • Huntsman Knife
  • Falchion Knife
  • Shadow Daggers
  • Bowie Knife
  • Stiletto Knife
  • Navaja Knife
  • Talon Knife
  • Ursus Knife
  • Classic Knife
  • Paracord Knife
  • Survival Knife
  • Skeleton Knife
  • Nomad Knife

Cases to Avoid for Knife Hunting:

  • Glove Case
  • Operation Hydra Case
  • Breakthrough Case
  • Operation Broken Fang Case

The overall chance of unboxing a knife is approximately 1/400 cases. For guaranteed acquisition, consider purchasing directly from the Steam Market or trusted trading sites rather than attempting to unbox one.

Remember that while some players might get lucky and unbox a knife within their first few cases, others might need to open thousands before seeing one. The odds remain consistent regardless of how many cases you open.

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