Getting a knife in CS:GO is one of the most sought-after experiences for players, but the odds are notoriously low. I'll break down exactly what your chances are and what affects them.

The base probability of unboxing a knife from a standard CS:GO case is approximately 0.26% or about 1 in 384 cases. This means that, on average, you would need to open 384 cases to have a statistical likelihood of getting one knife.

However, these odds aren't guaranteed, as each case opening is an independent event. You could open 1,000 cases and not get a knife, or you could get lucky and unbox one on your first try.

Different factors that affect knife odds:

Type of case (some newer cases have slightly different odds)
Knife rarity tier (Covert grade)
Specific knife variant and wear condition

When it comes to specific knife variants, the odds become even lower:

Regular knives: ~0.26%
Gold knives (★): Even rarer
Special finishes (e.g., Doppler, Gamma Doppler): Extremely rare

The wear conditions also impact the odds:

Factory New: Rarest
Minimal Wear: Very rare
Field-Tested: Most common
Well-Worn: Common
Battle-Scarred: Common

To put this into financial perspective, with cases typically costing around $2.50 to open, you might need to spend approximately $960 (384 cases × $2.50) on average before unboxing a knife.

It's important to note that these odds haven't changed significantly since CS:GO's release, and they remain consistent in Counter-Strike 2. The random number generator (RNG) used for case openings is truly random, meaning previous openings don't influence future ones.

For comparison, here are some other rare events that have similar probabilities:

Getting struck by lightning in your lifetime: ~0.033%
Becoming a millionaire: ~0.06%
Getting a royal flush in poker: ~0.000154%

This explains why knives maintain such high value in the CS:GO marketplace and why many players opt to purchase them directly rather than trying to unbox them through cases.

Remember that gambling can be addictive, and these low odds mean it's usually more cost-effective to buy the specific knife you want from the marketplace rather than trying to unbox one through cases.

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